基于系统动力学模型的城市可持续发展研究:以大连市为例

The Urban Sustainable Development Based on System Dynamics Model:The Case of Dalian

随着中国经济的蓬勃发展,资源枯竭、环境污染等传统经济发展方式的弊端日益凸显。转变经济发展方式,促进城市可持续发展成为社会各界的共识。采用系统动力学方法,构建涵盖经济、人口、水资源、环境、科技和教育五大子系统的城市可持续发展模型。依据现有经济和社会发展规律,对2014—2020年大连市可持续发展状况进行预测,并进行四种模型的情景分析。对比不同发展模型发现,优化产业结构、大力发展第三产业、适度提高人口自然增长率和城镇化速度的协调发展模型为最优选择,能够有效促进大连市的可持续发展。

China’s vigorous economic development has highlighted the disadvantages of the traditional economic growth pattern,such as resources depletion and environmental pollution.Researchers as well as the public have arrived at a consensus that it is necessary to transform the pattern of economic development and promote sustainable urban development.This study constructs a sustainable development model for Dalian based on system dynamics.The model includes five subsystems-the economy,population,water resources,environment,and science and education-and predicts Dalian’s sustainable development status for the 2014-2020 period.In addition,a scenario analysis of four plans is performed.A comparison of analysis results reveals that a coordinated development scenario is suitable to optimize the industry structure,develop the tertiary industry significantly,improve the natural population growth rate moderately,and accelerate the urbanization process.Thus,this plan would promote the sustainable development of Dalian efficiently.