丰收悖论问题研究——以1978-2014年中美两国的农情为例

Research on the Paradox of Bumper Harvest——A Case of Agricultural Condition in China and America from 1978 to 2014

丰收悖论在国内外都有较大的学术影响。通过统计分析1978-2014年中美两国的农情,本文发现了丰收悖论不是必然规律、而是概率事件,农产品实际生产价格下降不是丰收悖论发生的充分条件、而是必要条件等事实:通过建立模型为中美两国农情客观存在的某些丰收年份农产品实际生产价格不下降、丰收悖论并未发生,此期间中国农业增加值(Valueadded)占比下降等现象提供了一种解释。

The Paradox of Bumper Harvest has a great academic influence both at home and abroad.According to statistical analysis of the agricultural condition in China and US from 1978 to 2014,this paper finds facts that the Paradox of Bumper Harvest is a probability event instead of an inexorable law,and the decline of the real producing prices for agricultural products is the necessary condition rather than the sufficient condition.It provides an explanation for objective phenomena that the real producing prices for agricultural products in good harvest years didn’t drop,the Paradox of Bumper Harvest didn’t occur,and the added value of agricultural production in China’ GDP accounted for smaller percent in this period,which exists in the two countries by establishing a model.