北京市消费碳排放变动的驱动因素分析

Exploring the Determinant Factors for Reducing Carbon Emissions Demand on Beijing’s Final Consumption

北京市最终消费在地区生产总值中占六成以上,消费持续增加也必将带来消费模式的转变,消费所引发的碳排放也将成为北京市碳排放的重要组成部分。北京面临着2020年左右达到碳排放峰值的减排压力,消费的低碳发展成为必由之路。本文编制了2007、2012年非竞争型碳排放投入产出表,将生产过程中碳排放嵌入经济流量中,通过非竞争投入产出模型测度了北京市消费碳排放,构建结构分解分析模型探析了北京市消费碳排放变动的驱动因素。实证结果表明,2012年北京市消费碳排放较2007年出现大幅下降,下降的主要原因是碳排放强度效应及技术效应,消费的部门结构、类型结构效应也在促进消费碳排放的下降,消费规模效应是促进消费碳排放增加的主要原因。

Final demand which accounts for more than sixty percent of GDP, plays an important role in Beijing’s GDP development. The increasing consumption would bring changes to consumption pattern. Carbon emission caused by consumption should become an important part of Beijing’s carbon emissions. Facing the carbon emission reduction pressure that the emission should reach the peak value in 2020, low carbon emission development becomes necessary. This paper developed non-competitive input-output tables in 2007 and 2012 which embed carbon emissions of production in the economic flow. The carbon emission is measured by the non-competitive input-output model and the influence factors is exploring by structural decomposition analysis. The empirical results showed that carbon emission in 2012 is much smaller than 2007. The main reasons for this decline were carbon intensity effect and technology effect. Also the sector structure and type structure of consumption promoted less carbon emissions. The consumption scale effect is the most important reason to increase carbon emission.