基于技术进步视角的能源回弹效应实证分析:北京市为例

An Empirical Analysis of Energy Rebound Effect on Technological Progress:A Case Study of Beijing

本文通过建立三要素生产函数模型,计算全要素生产率获取技术进步贡献率,并以此为基础计算北京市的能源回弹效应。实证研究结果表明:北京市存在能源回弹效应,整体回弹效应水平低于全国和东部地区同期均值。从时间角度来看,改革开放以来北京市能源回弹效应波动较大,部分年份呈现能源节约,部分年份存在着一定程度的能源回弹,也有一些年份呈现出逆反效应,但是回弹效应整体呈上升趋势。本文的启示在于:依靠技术进步提高能源效率,进而实现节能减排的政策总体是有效的,但是效果有限,且随着时间推移效果在减弱,因此政府需要考虑能源效率和其他手段的综合运用。

This paper established a three factor production model, calculated total factor productivity to get technological progress rate, and then to calculate Beijing energy rebound effect. It found that energy rebound effect does exist in Beijing, lower than that in the national level and the southern area. From a temporal point of view, energy rebound effect fluctuated heavily since Opening-up Reform in Beijing, some years it turned to be conservative, some years it turned to be partly rebound effect, while some years it turned to be backfire effect. The overall trend for Beijing is energy rebound effect is increasing. The enlightenment of this paper is that the policy of improving energy efficiency and thus achieving energy saving and emission reduction is effective in general, but the effect is rather limited, and the effect is weakening with time. So the government needs to consider a combination of energy efficiency and other policies.