中国与“一带一路”国家贸易竞争性与互补性分析

Empirical Analysis of Trade Competitiveness,Complementarities and Industrial International Competitiveness on “B&R”Countries

根据UN Comtrade和UNCTAD数据库统计数据,采用出口相似度指数、贸易密集度指数、修正后专业化系数和一致系数、产业内贸易指数、显性比较优势指数、竞争优势指数和拉菲指数等实证测度指标,从贸易竞争性、互补性和产业国际竞争力三个方面对中国与"一带一路"国家货物贸易关系以及货物和服务贸易部门的国际竞争力变化趋势进行了系统测度与分析。研究结果表明:中国与"一带一路"国家间商品以产业间贸易为主且互补性大于竞争性。

According data from UN Comtrade and UNCTAD,this paper estimates the trade relations in goods between China and countries along the Belt & Road,as well as the trend of international competitiveness in goods and services trade,through some index such as ESI( export similarity index),TII( trade intensity Index),revised specialization coefficient and consistency coefficient,IIT( intra-industry trade index),RCA( revealed comparative advantage),TC( trade competitiveness),Lafay and so on. The results indicate that the trade between China and countries along the Belt & Road mainly in inter-industry and is more complementary than competitive.