土地市场化改革平抑了房价波动吗——来自中国的经验证据

Has the reform of land marketization refrain the fluctuation of housing prices?——Empirical evidence from China

本文以土地市场化改革作为分析当前高房价问题的视角,测算了2003—2012年间我国30个省区土地市场化水平,并实证检验我国土地市场化改革对房地产市场的影响以及能否平抑房价的高企。研究发现:土地市场化水平与房价变动在统计上没有严格意义的正相关或者负相关关系,而是一种曲线关系。计量结果显示:土地市场化程度每提高一个百分点将带来房地产平均价格水平上升0.014%,从其边际效应来看,我国现阶段土地市场化对房价的影响已开始呈现"减缓效应"。此外,土地市场化对房地产价格水平的影响在中部和西部地区要明显高于东部地区,边际效应显示这种影响在中西部具有显著的"放大效应"。

Analyzing the present problem of high housing price on the perspective of marketization reform, we measure the land marketization level of 30 provinces and regions over the 2003—2012 period, conduct empirical test on the influence of it on the real estate market and whether it can refrain high housing prices. The results show that land market marketization and the changes in housing prices are not positively related or negatively related statistically and they have a curvilinear relationship.The measurement results show that: land marketization level will raise the average housing price by 0.014% with its rise of one percentage point. As to its marginal effects, the influence of land marketization on housing price has taken on'alleviation effects'. In addition, the influence of land marketization on housing price is obviously higher in the middle and west areas than in the east areas. The marginal effects show that such influence has a significant'enlarging effects'in the middle and west areas.