气候变迁、政府能力与王朝兴衰——基于中国两千年来历史经验的实证研究

Climate Change,State Capacity,and the Rise and Fall of Dynasties——An Empirical Study Based on Chinese Historical Experience in the Past 2000 Years

本文利用长时段历史数据,构建了一个包括中国古代17个王朝的数据集来研究气候变迁与政府能力对王朝兴衰的影响。实证结果验证了"王朝周期律"假说:王朝年龄与内乱发生率之间存在U形关系,与经济繁荣程度之间存在倒U形关系。温度与降水变化均对王朝兴衰有显著影响,气候冲击主要通过影响粮食丰歉而作用于国家财政能力,进而影响社会经济发展。此外,在考虑中原王朝政府能力的情况下,外患的发生主要和王朝的个体异质性有关。

Based on long-term historical data, we construct a dataset which includes 17 dynasties in Chinese history to study the effect of climate change and state capacity on dynastic rise and fall. The empirical results prove the hypothesis of "dynastic cycle": There exists a U-shaped relationship between dynasty age and civil conflicts, and an inverted U-shaped relationship between dynasty age and economic prosperity. Higher temperature and more precipitation can promote economic prosperity and reduce the probability of civil conflicts effectively. Climate shocks affect fiscal capacity and economic growth primarily through grain yield. We also find that foreign attacks are mainly associated with dynastic heterogeneity characteristics when taking the state capacity of Central Plains Dynasty into account.