什么削弱了中国出口价格竞争力?——基于全球价值链分行业实际有效汇率新方法

What Does Weaken the Price Competiveness of China's Exports—A New Method of the Industrial Real Effective Exchange Rate of Global Value Chains

基于全球价值链有效汇率理论,本文首次定义了全球价值链分行业出口实际有效汇率,并进一步拓展到双边国家分行业出口(或进口)实际有效汇率的新概念和新方法。研究结果表明:①从2005年汇改到2009年期间,受名义汇率升值和相对成本优势减弱双重影响,中国制造业分行业出口价格竞争力优势逐步消失。未来靠低成本优势抵消汇率升值以保持价格竞争力的产业条件不复存在。②全球价值链双边分行业出口实际有效汇率指标明显优于传统汇率指标,且较好地解决了"汇率升值减少中国进口"悖论。

Based on the latest theory of global value chain effective exchange rate theory, we provide the method of defining the global value chain industry real effective exchange rate of exports for the first time. Moreover, we develop new concepts and methods of the global value chains bilateral industry real effective exchange rate of exports/imports. We find that:(1) During the period from 2005 to 2009, China industry price competitiveness of export gradually disappear due to the impact of appreciation of nominal exchange rate and weakening of relative cost advantage. In the future, because impact of the cost advantage could offset the impact of appreciation of exchange rate, it is hard for China's industry to maintain the price competitiveness.(2)Global value chain bilateral industry real effective exchange rate of exports is obviously superior to the traditional exchange rate indicators, and it well solve the paradox that appreciation of RMB exchange rate reduces China's imports.