关于国际资本流动管理和汇率政策的几点思考

Some Reflections on Capital Flow Management and Exchange-Rate Policies

本文研究发现中国在早期之所以采用人民币盯住美元的汇率政策,是为了显示中国维持稳定、低通胀货币政策的决心。但是随着时间的推移,中国逐步放开汇率调整区间以修正贸易平衡。中国使用资本管制是为了增加货币政策和汇率政策的独立性。本文构建了一个简化的、对称的、两国开放经济下的新凯恩斯模型,其中一国(中国)可以使用两种政策工具——总需求管理工具和贸易平衡工具,另外一个国家(美国)只有总需求管理工具,两国采用策略性非合作政策。在此模型中,中国拥有两种政策工具,因而中国比美国能够达到更高的福利水平。但是中国稳定贸易平衡对美国也是有利的。模型显示,尽管两国采用非合作性政策,但如果中国采用两种政策工具而非仅仅使用总需求管理工具,美国的福利会提高。

This lecture proposes that China initially pegged its exchange rate to the dollar in order to provide a signal of commitment to stable,low-inflation monetary policy.In subsequent years,China allowed the exchange rate to adjust in order to correct trade imbalances.China’s use of capital controls allows it to have some independence in choosing monetary policy and exchange-rate policy.The paper then builds a simple symmetric two-country New-Keynesian model in which one country(called China)has two policy instruments(to control aggregate demand and the trade balance),and the other country(called the U.S.)only has an aggregate demand instrument.Policy is conducted strategically rather than under cooperation.In this model,China achieves higher welfare than the U.S.,because it has two instruments.But China’s goal of stabilizing the trade balance can also benefit the U.S.In the model,the U.S.might be better off if China uses both policy instruments compared to a situation in which China only uses an aggregate demand policy,even though policy is not set cooperatively.