财政激励与消失的女性

Fiscal Incentive and Missing Women

本文利用县级数据分析了2005年农业税改革对基层政府财政收入的影响,并讨论了后者对辖区居民生育行为的影响,发现税改导致农业税较高地区0—4岁男女性别比相对于较低地区出现显著上升。该结果通过了共同趋势、证伪与安慰剂检验,并在利用替代控制组、替代解释变量以及考虑漏报影响时仍然保持稳健。此外,本文在机制分析中发现了财政压力上升、生育率下降与生育选择增加的证据。最后,本文通过检验排除了竞争性假说的影响。

In this paper the author analyzes the impacts of agricultural tax reform of 2005 on fiscal revenue of governments at the grassroots level,and discusses the influence of government’s fiscal incentive on fertility behavior of local residents.It is found that tax reform significantly improves the male-female sex ratio of 0—4 years old in county-level region,and it keeps valid under robustness check,with alternative control group and explanatory variables,and with missing report in census taken into account.The evidences of increasing grass root fiscal pressure,decreasing fertility rate,and increasing sex selection operations are found.Moreover,the influences of competitive hypotheses are eliminated.