“一带一路”沿线国家和地区华人移民对中国对外贸易的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Ethnic Chinese from “the Belt and Road” Countries and Regions on China's Foreign Trade

利用海外华人移民数据及中国企业进出口交易数据,分析"一带一路"沿线国家和地区华人移民对中国企业对外贸易的影响。结果表明:以移民存量为标准的组间进口和出口存在显著差异,并呈现华人移民多则双边进出口值大,反之则小的态势;按中等意义上"一带一路"沿线国家和地区与其他国家和地区进行划分,沿线国家和地区华人移民数量微乎其微,而双边进出口值总体低水平集中分布;华人移民正向影响双边进、出口额,与华人在移民目的地中所占人口比例无关;华人移民数量提高将会增加中国企业的出口概率,这种影响对于"一带一路"沿线国家和地区而言相对较弱。

Using the data of overseas Chinese immigrants and the data of Chinese enterprises’import and export transactions,the paper analyzes the impact of ethnic Chinese in countries along the'Belt and Road'on the foreign trade of Chinese enterprises.The results show that there are significant differences in the import and export between groups based on the stock of immigrants,and there are many Chinese immigrants with large bilateral import and export values,and vice versa.According to the'Belt and Road'in the medium sense and other countries and regions,the number of Chinese immigrants in countries and regions along the line is very small,while the bilateral import and export values are generally low-level and concentrated.Chinese immigrants are affecting bilateral imports and exports,regardless of the proportion of Chinese in the immigration destination.And the increase in the number of Chinese immigrants will increase the export probability of Chinese companies,which is relatively weak for countries and regions along the Belt and Road.