基于风险防范的中国宏观金融安全指数测度与分析

Measurement and Analysis on the China’s Macro Financial Security Index Based on Risk Prevention

基于'空间维度—风险防范—细分指标'步骤筛选指标构建中国宏观金融安全指数指标体系,运用变异系数法对指标赋权,基于同比增长率循环构造中国宏观金融安全分指数;将九个分指数运用熵值法赋权合成中国宏观金融安全总指数,对监测期内金融周期和经济周期的'顺周期'程度进行实证研究。结果表明:2013—2018年中国宏观金融安全总指数呈下行态势,近两年缓慢回升,安全程度有所提高;中国宏观金融安全分指数走势各不相同,长期看商业银行经营管理、宏观经济运行、债务安全三个分指数呈下行发展态势;从近一年短期走势看,宏观经济运行、债务安全、外汇安全、国际投资、国际贸易五个分指数呈波动下行走势。对中国宏观金融安全指数的测算和分析有助于客观判定当前宏观经济运行与金融安全态势,构建金融体系和实体经济间的'防火墙'机制。

This paper constructs China’s Macro Financial Security Index System based on'Spatial dimension'-'Risk prevention'-'Subdivision index'step.The method of variation is used to empower the index and the sub index is constructed based on the growth rate cycle.The total index is synthesized by the entropy value method of nine sub index and the empirical analysis of pro-cyclicity degree of China’s financial cycle and economic cycle is carried out.The result reveals that the total index of China’s Macro Financial Security shows a downward trend from 2013 to 2018,which has slowly rebounded in the past two years and improved its security level.The sub index of China’s Macro Financial Security show different trends.In the long run,the sub-indexes of Commercial bank operation and management,Macro-economic operation and Debt security show a downward trend.One year’s short-term trend shows that the five sub-indices of Macro-economic operation,Debt security,Foreign exchange security,International investment and International trade fluctuate downward.The index provides a certain reference for the objective determination of the current situation of macro-economic and financial operation and the construction of'Firewall'mechanism between the financial system and real economy.