系统性金融风险的成因及防范:币值波动视角

The Causes and Precautions of Systematic Financial Risk:The Perspective of Currency Value Fluctuation

目前,大多数系统性金融风险成因的研究忽视了其历史特性,缺乏系统的逻辑分析,对其成因的把握不够全面,因而本文构建了历史、理论和实证的逻辑分析框架。从历史上看,通过描述性统计分析发现系统性金融风险爆发前有币值波动现象。从理论上看,币值波动引发银行流动性短缺或清偿能力不足,引发银行挤兑,进而使系统性金融风险有爆发的可能;从金融脆弱性视角看,币值波动引发资本流动和投资速度的变化,进而易引发系统性金融风险。从实证方面看,选取全球26个国家为样本,运用Logit模型进行实证分析,结果表明币值波动导致系统性金融风险发生的概率提高。因此,在防范和化解系统性金融风险过程中,应构建逆周期的宏观审慎管理框架、精简货币政策工具、优化货币政策目标,以消除影响币值的不稳定因素,避免币值持续不稳定。

At present,the study of the causes of most systemic financial risks ignores its historical characteristics,lacks systematic logical analysis,and does not grasp the comprehensive causes of its causes.Therefore,this paper constructs a historical,theoretical and empirical logical analysis framework.Historically,descriptive statistical analysis has found that there are currency value fluctuations before the outbreak of systemic financial risks.From a theoretical point of view,currency value fluctuations cause banks to have liquidity shortages or insufficient liquidity,triggering bank runs,and thus the possibility of systemic financial risks breaking out.From the perspective of financial fragility,currency value fluctuations trigger changes in capital flows and investment rates,which in turn lead to systemic financial risks.From the empirical point of view,26 countries from around the world are selected as samples,and the Logit model is used to conduct empirical analysis.The results show that the probability of currency value fluctuations leads to an increase in the probability of systemic financial risks.Therefore,in the process of preventing and defusing systemic financial risks,we should build a counter-cyclical macro-prudential management framework,streamline monetary policy tools,and optimize monetary policy objectives to eliminate the unstable factors affecting the value of the currency and avoid the continued instability of the currency.