摘要
随着中国进口原油数量的不断增加 ,国际原油价格成了影响我国经济运行的重要因素。首先从经济学角度分析了合理油价的空间为 15～ 2 1美元 /桶 ,而后进一步分析了影响油价的非供求因素如期货市场、石油库存、气候以及欧佩克的影响力 ,力图提供一个预测国际原油价格走势的基本框架。
Along with the continuous increase of crude oil quantity imported by our country, the international price of crude oil has become an important factor influencing the operation of China's economy. This paper, from the angle of economics, first gives an analysis that the oil prices of 15-21 USD per barrel should be the reasonable space of price. Then, the paper further analyses the non-supply-demand factors, such as futures market, petroleum stocks, weather, and influences of OPEC, which have the effects on oil prices, and tries hard to provide a basic frame for predicting the international price tendency of oil.
出处
《石油化工技术经济》
2002年第6期9-12,30,共5页
Techno-Economics in Petrochemicals
