影子银行体系下的宏观审慎政策和货币政策传导

Macroprudential Policy and Monetary Policy Transmission Based on Shadow Banking System

本文通过构建包含影子银行体系和宏观审慎政策的动态随机一般均衡模型,探讨影子银行对宏观经济以及宏观审慎政策和货币政策传导机制的影响。基于中国的实际数据,通过模拟分析得出以下结论:货币政策非预期调整时,影子银行会放大经济波动;宏观审慎政策非预期调整时,影子银行的影响不统一,在放大产出、就业和投资波动的同时,又抑制了通胀的波动;影子银行的存在减少了社会福利损失,但是会削弱政策的调控效果;对影子银行进行监管时,货币政策和宏观审慎政策存在一定的政策'叠加'效果,协调搭配能有效地降低金融风险。

By implanting the shadow bank system and macroprudential policy into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model,this paper discovers the impact of shadow banking on the macro economy,and the transmission mechanism of macroprudential and monetary policy.Based on China’s actual data,this paper draws the following conclusions from the simulation analysis:the shadow bank will enlarge the economic fluctuations when the monetary policy has unexpected adjustment,but the influence is not uniform under the macroprudential policy,amplifying output,employment and investment volatility,and suppressing inflation volatility;Shadow banking reduces the loss of social welfare,and the effect of policy regulation will be weakened at the same time;Coordinating with macroprudential policy and monetary policy can effectively reduce the financial risk.