气候变化背景下黑龙江省主栽作物稳产类型区划

Regional Division of Major Crop Yield Stability Types in Heilongjiang Province under the Background of climatic change

在气候变化背景下,利用黑龙江省1949~2012年产量资料,对单产稳产类型进行区划。利用WOFOST作物模型,结合RCP4.5未来情景资料模拟2017~2060年黑龙江省水稻、玉米、大豆的产量,对未来情景黑龙江省主栽作物进行单产稳产类型区划。结果表明:1949~2012年研究区域水稻单产的变异系数为0.44~0.78,玉米单产的变异系数为0.56~0.77,大豆单产的变异系数为0.26~0.58。未来情景下研究区域三大主栽作物高产稳产区主要分布在东部和南部,高产不稳产区主要分布在南部和西部,低产稳产区分布在北部和东部,低产不稳产区分布在北部和中部。

Under the background of climatic change,regional division of main crop yield stability type was established based on the data of yield during 1949-2012 in Heilongjiang Province.Based on the data of future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and crop yield during 2017-2060 of Crop Growth Simulation Model,regional division of main crop yield stability in future climate scenarios was set up using WOFOST Crop Model.The main conclusions were as follows:The coefficient of variation of rice yield was 0.44-0.78 from 1980 to 2012 and corn was 0.56-0.77 and soybean was 0.26-0.58.On the background of future climate scenarios,the high and stable yield of crop will be scattered in the south and east,the high and unstable yield will be mainly in the south and west,the low and stable yield will be in the north and east,and the low and unstable yield will be in the north and the middle part.