基于IEMMA模型的我国“十三五”能源分配研究

“The 13th Five- Year Plan”Energy Distribution Research in Our Country Based on the IEMMA Model

如何处理经济新常态背景下我国的能源消耗与分配问题是当前及今后一段时期我国经济发展面临的重要问题.通过层次分析,建立了基于信息熵的IEMMA能源总量分配模型,2010~2014期间各年的指标完成模型的合理性检验,以2010年为基准年,2020年为目标年,得到不同情境设置下,我国"十三五"期间各省份能源数量的分配方案,以期在经济新常态的形势下,寻求使能源利用效率达到最高的能源分配方案,有效推动经济发展,同时,在此基础上提出相应的政策建议.

How to deal with our country 's energy consumption and distribution are important problems which are under the background of the new normal economy and our country faces in the present and in the future as the economy developing. According to the hierarchical analysis,the authors establish the IEMMA energy total amount allocation model based on information entropy,and complete the rationally test of the model with the index of each year during 2010 ~ 2014,2010 as the base year,2020 as the target,make the number of energy allocation plans during the period of ' the 13 th five- year plan' of each province in our country under the different scenario settings,in order to seek the highest efficiency of energy allocation plan under the situation of the new normal,and promote the economic development effectively,at the same time,put forward some corresponding policy recommendations based on this.