官厅水库及周边地区地震活动趋势的综合统计预测

Combinatorial statistic forecast of seismic activity trend in Guanting reservoir and its around zone

利用多种地震统计学分析预测方法,详细分析了官厅水库及周边地区的地震活动情况,和未来50年的地震危险性。综合分析最后认为,未来50年内,官厅水库及周边地区至少应发生一次5.5～6.5级地震和多次5级左右地震的可能性;外围较远地区则具有发生7级以上地震的可能,这里距大坝虽然较远,对大坝的安全可能不会构成真正威胁,但其周边地区可能发生的潜在地震,对水库的可能影响则应引起我们足够的注意及重视。

In this paper, seismic activity and risk of Guanting reservoir in the next fifty years are analyzed in detail with the earthquake statistical analysis method. We think that a MS 5.5～6.5 or several MS 5 earthquakes will occur in the next fifty years in Guanting reservoir and its around zone, but MS 7 level may occur in far area. Although the security of Guanting reservoir is not threatened, we should pay sufficient attention to the risk.