新疆城市化过程及机制分析

ANALYSIS OF DEVELOPMENT PROCESS AND DYNAMIC MECHANISMS OF URBANIZTION IN XINJIANG

城市化动力机制是城市化研究的核心问题。在分析新疆城市化现状特征的基础上 ,围绕新疆城市发展的阶段和过程 ,采用多因素的灰色关联分析和比较分析等手段 ,对新疆 1978～ 2 0 0 0年间城市化发展过程进行分析和探讨 ,寻求并探索新疆城市化发展的特征、水平和演化机制。研究结果发现各因素与城市化的关联度不仅在横向上存在着指标间的差异 ,在纵向上显示出 1990～ 2 0 0 0间各指标与城市化的相关性明显高于 1978～ 1989年间 ,部分指标与城市化关系发生了负向变化。表明近 2 0多年来新疆城市化稳定发展 ,城市化系统条件 (农村和城市的控制性次系统及整个社会经济文化 )有一定的提高 ,体现了系统各因素与城市化发展的同向性以及区域发展的合理趋势 ,但整体薄弱的社会经济基础是新疆城市化落后的根本原因 ,产业结构升级转换仍将是新疆城市化的主要动力。

The dynamic mechanism of urbanization is a key issue in the research of urbanization. Based on the analysis of present situation and urbanization characteristics of Xinjiang, centered on its development phrases and process, this paper studies urban development process in Xinjiang during 1978～2000 through gray correlation and comparison analysis. The aim of the study is to approach the characteristics and dynamic mechanisms of urbanization and to provide bases for its future development. Research found that the gray correlations between urbanization and its influential factors not only have difference among different parameters, but also show that the gray correlation during 1978～1989 is apparently higher than that in 1990～2000, and some have negative changes. It is concluded that urbanization in Xinjiang in recent 20 years has developed in stable way and its urbanization system conditions (the second ary systems of countries, cities as well as social, economy and culture) has improved to a degree, the general weak social and economic foundations are rooted reasons of lagged urbanization of Xinjiang, and up-grade and conformation of industrial structure are still future major dynamics of its urban development.