全面二孩政策对我国人口结构及经济发展的影响及预测

基于中国人口宏观统计数据,使用回归分析及偏微分方程等方法,对全面二孩政策下的人口结构和经济发展进行分析,预测了我国人口的结构变化及其对经济发展的影响。研究发现:实行全面二孩政策,不仅可以改善我国的人口老龄化问题,而且实现了我国人口的平稳过渡,防止因人口波动所导致的经济波动,对我国经济的持续发展产生积极影响,预计我国人均GDP在2030年达到20.06万元,在2050年达到37.90万元。

Based on China’s macroeconomic statistics,using the methods of regression analysis and partial differential equations,on the second child under the policy of population structure and economic development were analyzed,and predicting the China’s population structure change and its impact on economic development.Study found that two child policy comprehensively,can not only improve the problems on the country’s aging population,and achieved a smooth transition of population in our country,prevent due to population fl uctuations caused by economic fl uctuations,positive impact on the sustainable development of our country’s economy,China’s per capita GDP is expected in 2030 reached 200600 yuan,379000 yuan in 2050.