摘要
本文将贝叶斯方法应用于牡荆素对小鼠溃疡性结肠炎的药效作用评估中,在总体信息和先验概率的统计推断下,计算得到后验概率。首先利用一组试验数据在离散的贝叶斯公式下计算得到结果,该药的有效置信度从原来的0.3上升为0.3234;之后对连续情况进行计算,小鼠的体重变化均值提升到了95.773%。可见,应用贝叶斯方法对新药评估有着较好的效果,值得推广。
In this paper, we applied Bayes analysis into the evaluation of vitexin's pesticide effect on ulcerative colitis. We figured out a posteriori probability on the basis of general information and prior probability. Firstly, we utilized a set of test data to calculate the posteriori probability, and the result shows that the valid confidence coefficient increased to 0.3234 from 0.3.Then, in the case of continuous, the mean weight ascended to 95.773%. The results show that the way of applying Bayes analysis to medicine evaluation has good effect.
出处
《佳木斯职业学院学报》
2015年第8期409-410,共2页
Journal of Jiamusi Vocational Institute
关键词
贝叶斯模型
后验概率
牡荆素
药效评估
Bayes analysis
Posteriori probability
Vitexin
Medicine evaluation
