侦查情报分析中的直觉及其偏差修正

Intuition and deviation correction in investigation information analysis

在不确定情境的判断与决策中,直觉可能带来便利,节省决策及采取行动的时间。但同样会导致情报分析人员不充分地调整信息,产生多种认知偏差。本文通过介绍直觉的属性和侦查情报分析中直觉偏差的基本样态研究,提出对直觉偏差进行修正的措施,避免侦查活动中的错误。

In the judgment and decision making of uncertain situations,intuition can bring convenience,save decision and take action time.But it also leads to inadequate adjustment of information by intelligence analysts,resulting in a wide range of cognitive biases.This paper introduces the nature of intuition and the basic pattern of the intuitive deviation in investigation information analysis,and puts forward some measures to correct the deviation of intuition so as to avoid errors in investigation.