我国通货紧缩持续的信息经济学解释

当前我国通货紧缩仍在持续 ,表现为价格持续下跌 ,失业率上升及经济增速放慢 (低于潜在产出水平 )。通货紧缩为何长期持续 ,目前尚缺乏深入的理论研究。本文试图用信息经济学理论 ,通过分析劳动、商品和资本市场微观行为 ,认为 :通货紧缩时期在劳动、商品和资本市场上 ,因信息不对称和信息不完全会导致市场机制失灵 ,从而加剧了宏观经济波动的深度。劳动力市场上效率工资的存在造成失业增加 ,工资成本反而下降 ;高等教育普及使原有文凭结构的信号传送功能弱化 ,迫使人们追求更高学历层次 ,并为之增加储蓄 ,减少了即期需求 ;商品市场上厂商之间博弈会形成折弯的需求曲线和价格粘性 ;信贷市场由于银行风险厌恶程度增加 ,信贷配给更加严重 ;债券市场因代理人问题出现萎缩 ;中小企业融资也因各层级资本市场的信息披露程度差异 ,形成低层级融资均衡 。

At the present stage, deflation continues in China, being accompanied by falling price level, higher unemployment and relatively low economic growth (lower than potential capacity). This paper attempts to utilize the theory of information economics to explain this phenomenon by analyzing various markets. Due to information asymmetry and incomplete information, the traditional market mechanism is not effective any more, which deepens the fluctuation of economy. In labor market, efficient wage results in unemployment and decline of total cost; the prevalence of higher education weakens the function of signaling, which forces people to save more and consume less; in merchandise market, the game between competing enterprises leads to kinked demand curve and sticky price; in capital market, credit rationing becomes more serious because of incomplete information and more risk-aversion, debenture market shrinks arising from principle-agent problem and the low-level equilibrium of capital market is formed when considering the cost of disclosure of information. All these result in the lack of investment.