货币贬值的国际收支效应失灵分析

本文从传统理论与现实状况两方面分析了一个较为普遍的国际金融现象———货币贬值的国际收支效应失灵。本文认为 ,传统的国际收支调节理论对货币贬值的国际收支失灵问题有一定的解释力 ,但由于理论的缺陷及现实的变迁 ,这些解释不充分。当代货币贬值的国际收支效应失灵问题主要来自于贬值陷阱及国际游资冲击。本文指出 ,国际收支逆差国企图只通过货币贬值策略改善国际收支状况 ,很难达到预期目标。本文建议 ,国际收支逆差国应尽量放弃通货贬值这种低层次的价格竞争策略 。

This paper offers an analysis of failure in depreciation effect on BOP (Balance of Payment), a common phenomenon in the international finance sector. This paper holds that the prevailing theory of adjustment of BOP can interpret somewhat the failure in depreciation effect on BOP. However, the interpretation turns out to be inadequate owing to the limitation of the theory and the changes in current situation. The failure is manly caused by the trap of depreciation and the 'hot money shock'. It is clear that nations of unfavorable balance can hardly reach the goal of improving the status of their BOP only by devaluing their currencies. It is suggested that the nations of unfavorable balance take other more effective measures to improve the status of their BOP instead of such inferior pricing strategy as devaluation.