IMF宏观金融分析框架的内容与方法综述

A Review on IMF Macro Financial Analysis

近年来,国际货币基金组织(IMF)日益重视宏观金融监管的研究,并努力将宏观金融分析应用到基金组织的日常监督工作中。本文从以下四个方面跟踪了IMF宏观金融分析框架研究进展情况。(1)介绍了IMF宏观金融分析框架产生的背景;(2)概述了IMF宏观金融分析框架的内容,包括基准情景和风险分析两方面;(3)归纳总结了IMF宏观金融分析的主要工具与方法,包括多国宏观计量经济模型、GVAR模型、经济周期与金融周期分析、DSGE模型、银行压力测试、资产负债表分析方法、指标基础模型、网络分析和流动性工具以及敏感度分析方法;(4)阐述了IMF在推进宏观金融分析框架上取得的进展,包括在第四条款磋商中已经取得的研究成果及IMF各部门已开发的工具等。

In recent years,IMF has paid more and more attention to the research of macro financial supervision and tried to apply macro financial analysis to the Fund daily supervision.This study introduces the progress of the IMF macro financial analysis framework from the following four aspects.Firstly,the background of IMF macro financial analysis framework.Secondly,Outlines the content of the framework of IMF macro financial analysis,including the baselines and risk analysis.Thirdly,the main tools and methods of IMF macro financial analysis are summarized,including Multi Country macro econometric model,GVAR model,Economic cycle and financial cycle analysis,DSGE model,Bank stress test,Balance Sheet Approach,Indicator-based model,Network analysis and liquidity tools,Sensitivity analysis.Finally,introduces the progress in macro financial analysis framework,including the research results in the Article IV Consultation and tools developed by IMF departments.