中东欧国家资本账户开放的经验和启示

On Capitac Account Liberalization of CEE Countries

21世纪的前十年,中东欧8国在资本账户开放之后经历了完整的国际资本流动周期,出现了资本流入急增、金融脆弱性累积和资本骤停等现象。中东欧资本账户自由化进程对中国具有借鉴意义。本文首先通过分析中东欧8国资本账户开放进程和对经济的影响,指出在中期资本账户开放会导致出口部门国际竞争力下降和金融脆弱性不断积累,进而更容易在外部冲击下发生金融危机。对此,应更多运用宏观审慎政策和资本管制来管理资本流动,维持金融稳定。

In the first decade of the 21 st century,8 countries in Central and Eastern Europe after capital account liberalization had experienced a complete cycle of international capital flows.They had gone through surging of capital inflows,accumulation of financial fragility and then sudden stop of capital flows.Capital account liberalization in CEE countries provides some reference for China.In this paper,we analyze the capital account liberalization process and its impact on the economy in CEE countries.We find that in the medium-term capital account liberalization will lead to international competitiveness declining in export sector,financial fragility accumulation,and thus more prone to financial crises in the external shocks.In this regard,more macro-prudential policies and capital controls should be used to manage capital flows and maintain financial stability.