我国产出缺口与物价关系的实证研究

Researoh on the Relationship between China's Output Gap and Price

20世纪90年以来我国物价波动的幅度和频率明显增加,物价变化受到越来越多因素的影响,且呈现通货膨胀和通货紧缩交替更频繁的新态势,其成因也逐渐趋向多样化、复杂化。在历次的物价波动过程中,产出缺口一直是影响物价的重要指标之一。基于此,本文立足产出缺口视角,对我国物价波动的关系进行实证研究。发现产出缺口与物价之间存在明显的正向关系,其轨迹与物价波动的轨迹大致同步。最后在此基础上,提出相关的政策建议。

Since the 1990 s,China's price fluctuations in amplitude and frequency has increased significantly.The price change is influenced by more and more factors and shows a more frequent alternating trend of inflation and deflation,the cause of which becomes more and more diversified and complicated.In the process of the previous price fluctuations,the output gap has been one of the important indicators of the impact on this.Based on htis,the paper researches the relationship between output gap and the price fluctuations in China.