2015年哈萨克斯坦货币贬值问题研究

On Depreciation of Kazakhstan Currency Tenge

2015年,哈萨克斯坦货币坚戈大幅贬值,幅度在新兴市场国家中居前。本文对贬值原因、影响因素进行分析,认为导致本次坚戈贬值的表面因素是哈萨克斯坦汇率制度改变和该国央行人事变动,但内在因素则是哈内外部不利因素共同作用的结果。货币贬值对居民生活造成不利影响,虽然短期内有助于提升出口产品竞争力、保护外汇储备并促进哈货币政策转型,但是长期无助于解决哈经济困境。未来哈将继续面对货币进一步贬值的压力。坚戈贬值对中国宏观经济稳定影响较小,但对中哈贸易将产生不利影响。

By 2015,the depreciation of Kazakhstan currency tenge was most in the emerging market countries,this paper analyzes the influence factors that lead to devaluation,surface factors were the exchange rate regime changes,personnel changes in the central bank.But the internal factors were Kazakhstan adverse external factors working together.Depreciation adversely affect the lives of the residents,in the short term,it help to improve the competitiveness of export products,protect foreign exchange reserves and promote the transformation of Kazakhstan monetary policy,but in long- term it does not help to solve the economic problem.Future Kazakhstan will continue to face further downward pressure on the currency.Tenge devaluation has little effect with the Chinese macroeconomic stability,but a negative impact on Sino- Kazakh trade.