中国出口竞争力的决定因素分析

The Analysis on Determinants of China's Export Competitiveness

近年来中国出口增速的放缓引发了各界对中国出口竞争力下降的担忧。尽管学界已有不少相关的研究,但是这些研究大多关注的是行业或者产品层面的出口竞争力,而缺少对我国总体出口竞争力的全面考察。本文试图对中国总体出口竞争力的决定因素进行系统性实证分析。通过构建并估计协整方程和误差修正模型,我们考察了国外需求、价格性竞争力和非价格性竞争力这三大类因素对中国出口竞争力的短期影响和长期影响。研究发现,长期中,国外需求的上升、本币实际有效汇率贬值以及出口品种类的丰富有助于增强我国出口的竞争力,短期内这些影响并不显著。我们对其背后的可能原因进行了解释,并提出了若干政策建议。

In recent years,the slowdown in China's export growui has drawn much concern on export competitiveness of China.Although there are many academic studies on this issue,most of them focus on the export competitiveness at industry or product level and lack the study on overall export competitiveness of China.This article attempts to analyse the determinants of China's overall export competitiveness empirically.We construct and estimate co- integration equation and error correction model to investigate the short- term and long- term impacts on China's export competitiveness.We find that the rise in foreign demand,the depreciation of the real effective exchange rate as well as the increasing of the types of export products enhance Chinas export competitiveness in the long- term.However,this conclusion doesn't hold in the short-term.We then explain the possible reasons and propose some policy recommendations.