中亚五国2015年经济金融形势分析及未来展望

Analysis of the Economic and Financial Situation of the Five Central Asian Countries in 2015

对2015年中亚五国经济金融运行情况进行分析,可以得到如下结论:2015年,中亚五国经济面临的最大挑战是外部冲击的严重影响,大宗商品价格持续大幅下跌,俄罗斯经济衰退对中亚地区产生的溢出效应以及中国经济增速放缓导致的需求下降,综合因素导致中亚地区的经济增速下降至2008年世界金融危机以来的最低点,中亚国家普遍出现国际收支和财政收入情况恶化。为应对危机,中亚国家政府普遍采取扩张性的财政政策及主动性的货币贬值等措施,一定程度上缓解了外部冲击的影响,但是随着而来的是,整区域性的通货膨胀和金融部门系统性风险有所增加。同时世界经济前景不确定性以及中亚国家自身所存在的体制、社会等问题,恐怖势力在中亚地区的再度抬头,使得中亚五国未来的经济发展仍然存在较多不确定性,需要进一步密切关注。

The economic and financial operation of the five Central Asian countries in 2015 was analyzed,and can get the following conclusion:in 2015,the five central Asian countries economy is one of the biggest challenges facing the serious effect of external shocks,commodity prices continue to fall sharply,the Russian economy recession have spillover effect on central Asia,and China's economic slowdown resulting in a decline in demand,the comprehensive factors resulting in a decline in the growth of the central Asia to their lowest level since the financial crisis of 2008,the central Asian countries widespread international balance of payments and fiscal revenue situation worse.In response to the crisis,the government of central Asian countries generally adopted expansionary fiscal policy and currency devaluation of initiative measures,to some extent the impact of external shocks,but as is,the whole regional systemic risk increase inflation and financial department.At the same time,the world economic outlook itself exists uncertainty and central Asian countries of system,the social problems of the resurgence of terrorist forces in central Asia,the five central Asian countries economic development in the future there is still more uncertainty,the need for further Closely.