供给侧改革中去产能对经济增长效应研究——以陕西渭南煤炭行业为例

Research on the Effect of Removing Capacity on Economic Growth in Supply Side Reform——A Case Study of Weinan Coal Industry in Shanxi

2016年中央经济工作会议指出要注重供给侧改革,主抓"去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板"五大任务,可见从供给端做减法已成为化解产能过剩的主要手段。本文基于陕西省渭南市煤炭行业数据和去产能实际情况,采用VAR模型分析了去产能对渭南市当地经济发展、社会就业及政府财税收入的影响,得出去产能在短期内会抑制经济增长,引起就业的短期波动,但长期却有利于经济增长和就业的稳定;同时去产能会抑制财政收入增长,增加财政支出负担。基于以上分析,本文建议采取结构性去产能政策,通过优化产业结构,发展精准就业援助,调整税收政策等措施解决去产能带来的经济、就业及财政问题。

In 2016 the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that we should pay attention to the supply side reform,the main task is to 'to production capacity,to inventory,to leverage,reduce costs,make up short board',from the supply side to do subtraction has become the main means to resolve excess capacity.Based on the VAR model in Weinan City of Shaanxi Province,this paper analyzes the influence of production capacity on local economic development,social employment and government tax revenue income in Weinan City.The results show that the production capacity in the short term will inhibit economic growth,causing short-term fluctuations in employment,but long-term is conducive to economic growth and employment stability;at the same time to produce capacity will inhibit fiscal revenue growth,increase the burden of financial expenditure.This paper proposes to adopt the structure to the production capacity policy,by optimizing the industrial structure,the development of precision employment assistance,adjust the tax policy and other measures to solve the economic,employment and financial problems caused by production.