利率最终由谁决定?

What determines the interest rate?

目前,全球处于前所未有的低利率时代,各界对主要央行采取的低利率政策争论不休。本文探究了利率走势背后的利率决定机制。研究表明,利率的本质是实体经济的资本回报率,往往内生于实体经济的变化。结合国际经验以及中国现实,我们发现央行政策利率与资本回报率(如实体资本回报率、公司净资产收益率)之间存在较为显著的相关性和因果关系。政策利率表面上是由央行制定,但其实质上最终取决于实体经济中资本回报率的变化。因此,在缺乏深层次结构改革以及实质性科技制度创新等供给面变化的情形下,资本回报率短期内或难以有所起色,利率长期低位运行的趋势仍将继续。

This paper explores the interest rate decision mechanism behind the interest rate.The study shows that the essence of interest rate is the return on capital of the real economy.Combined with international experience and China's reality,we find that there is a significant correlation and causality between the central bank's policy interest rate and the return on capital(such as the return of physical capital,the return of the company's net assets).Policy interest rate is set by the central bank on the surface,but it ultimately depends on the rate of return on capital.Therefore,in the absence of deep structural reforms and substantive system of science and technology innovation,the rate of return on capital is difficult to rebound in the short term,long-term low interest rates trend will continue.