房产税和房价波动关系研究——来自美国的证据

Research on the Relationship between Property Tax and House Price Fluctuation——Evidence from the US

近年来,中央提出要积极推进房产税改革。而房产税改革的目标之一就是抑制房价快速上涨势头。这引起了专家学者的广泛热议,房产税也再度成为社会关注的焦点。而由此引发的问题是,征收房产税能真正降低房价波动?两者存在因果关系吗?本文选取美国51个州2005-2014年间的房产税数据来分析房产税率和房价波动之间的关系。结果表明,美国房产税率对房价波动有负面影响,各州房产税率提高0.5%将使房价波动率下降0.5-5.5%,利用工具变量和GMM回归表明两者确实存在因果关系,而且以上结论在不同估算方法下均是稳健的。这表明,房产税可作为其他工具(包括货币工具和宏观审慎监管)的有效补充而用于平抑房价波动。

In recent years,the China central government has proposed to actively promote the reform of property tax,which one of the goals is to dampen the rapidly rising of house prices.This caused the extensive debate among experts and the property tax has once again become the focus of social attention.The following problem is that the property tax can really reduce the price fluctuations? is there a causal relationship between the two? In this paper,we select the 51 states of the Property tax data between 2005 and 2014 to analyze the relationship between property tax and house price fluctuation.The study shows that the US property tax has a negative impact on house price fluctuations,the house price volatility will decline by 0.5%-0.5%after the property tax rate increase by 0.5%.The use of instrumental variables and GMM regression also shows that there is a causal relationship between the two,and several estimation methods are all robust.This suggests that property taxes can be used as an effective complement to other instruments,including monetary instruments and macro-prudential regulation,to reduce house price volatility.