新疆经济周期波动的成因分析——基于总需求视角

An Analysis of the Causes of Xinjiang's Economic Cycle Fluctuation——from the Perspective of Aggregate Demand

本文采用VAR模型来研究投资、消费、净出口这三大需求与经济周期波动的内在关系,并用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解技术深入分析总需求各部分对新疆整体经济波动的影响强度。通过模型得出结论,新疆经济周期波动短期内主要来自于投资,而长期则更多受到居民消费的波动影响。具体而言,投资、政府消费对新疆经济具有较为显著的短期带动作用,居民消费对经济的促进作用具有长期持续的稳定效应。净出口对新疆经济的短期的负面冲击较大,值得关注。

In this paper,the VAR model is used to study the relationship between the investment,consumption,net exports and economic cycle fluctuations.And granger causality tests,impulse response functionand variance decomposition technique are used to analyze the influence of the Aggregate Demandon the overall economic cycle fluctuation in Xinjiang.We draw a conclusion from the model that Xinjiang's economic cycle fluctuations mainly come from investmentin the short term,while in the long runit is more affected by fluctuations of resident consumption.Specifically,investment and government spending are more significant in promotingXinjiang'sshort-term economy.While resident consumption has a long-term stablepromoting effect on the economy.The net exports has short-term negative impact,which is worthy of attention.