资本账户开放、跨境资本流动与宏观审慎管理——基于动态随机一般均衡分析

Capital Account Liberalization,Cross-border Capital Flows and Macro Prudential Management:Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium

本文通过构建一个符合中国实际的开放经济动态随机一般均衡模型,深入系统地研究不同的资本账户开放程度以及宏观审慎管理水平下跨境资本流动的宏观经济效应。研究结果表明:跨境资本流出会对本国经济带来紧缩效应,且随着资本账户开放程度的增加,不利影响会越来越大,社会福利损失也会增大;宏观审慎政策能够起到逆周期"以丰补欠"的效果,减少经济受到跨境资本流动冲击的影响以降低系统性风险的发生,在维护金融稳定的同时保证经济平稳增长,产生更少的社会福利损失。

This paper constructs a China accord with actual open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,in-depth study of different capital account openness and macroeconomic effects of cross-border capital flows under the macro Prudential Management level. The research results show that cross-border capital outflow will bring a tightening effect on the domestic economy. and with the increase of capital account openness, adverse effects will be more and more,the loss of social welfare will increase; macro Prudential policy can play the effect of inverse cycle 'to fill Feng', reduce the economy affected by the impact of cross-border capital flows in order to reduce the occurrence of systemic risk, to ensure steady economic growth in the maintenance of financial stability at the same time, resulting in less loss of social welfare.