政策组合:DSGE研究的挑战和机遇

Policy Packages:Challenge and Opportunity for DSGE Research

为了摆脱自2008-2009年全球危机以来的经济困境,实施全面的政策组合,以开展广泛的国际经济政策合作,成为全球政策制定者的共识。各国政策之间(或一国不同领域)的政策协调,需要注意特定的战略空间、政策制定目标、以及各国之间(或一国不同领域)政策的不对称性。开展政策组合分析,对宏观经济学的建模提出了挑战,通过构建适当的微观基础、动态性、随机性和一般均衡,DSGE模型最有可能成功地完成这些任务。

Calls for comprehensive policy packages have become the latest mantra in the world of policymaking. Policymakers around the world are urged(or they promise) todeploy widemenus of instruments to lift economies out of the doldrums where they have been stuck since the 2008-09 crisis. Coordination of policiesacross countries or across policymakers within a given country requires attention tospecifying strategy spaces,policymaker objectives,and asymmetries across countries(or policymakers). Analysis of policy packages presents a challenge for macroeconomic modeling. By building on the appropriate level of microfoundation, being dynamic, being stochastic and achieving general equilibrium, DSGE models have the potential to fulfill these tasks successfully.