外汇市场开放下中国跨境资金流动风险的识别与监测

Cross-Border Capital Flows Risk Monitoring and Trend Analysis in Foreign Exchange Market Opening Process

对国际资金流动风险的监控及新趋势预测是跨境交易顺利开展的前提和保障。本文基于外汇市场开放视角,根据2012-2017年我国资金流月度波动情况,识别跨境资金流动风险点,并挖掘出表征流动危机的指标体系,从而构建我国跨境资金流动监测系统。研究发现:样本期内(2012M1-2016M12)流出风险综合指数振幅略高,表明跨境资金流出风险发生概率正逐步累积,直至2015年6-7月陷入风险喷发期,近一年来风险水平回归合理区间,资金流入(出)趋于均衡状态;样本期外(2017MI-M6)预测到未来资本流出仍是风险高发地,综合预警指数比流入(出)基准指标提前映射风险状态,能够有效发挥对跨境资金监测及趋势分解的效力。

The monitoring of the risk of international capital flows and the forecast of the new trend are the prerequisite and guarantee for the smooth development of cross-border transactions. Based on the foreign exchange market prospective,according to the monthly fluctuation flow situation in our country from 2012 to 2017, identify risk of cross-border capital flows, and dug up the index system to present the current crisis, to build cross-border capital flow monitoring system in our country. Study found that the sample period(2012 M1-2016 M12) out of risk index amplitude slightly tall, showe that cross-border capital flow risk probability is gradually accumulated, a risk eruption period is in June 2015 to July 2016,and the risk level returns to a reasonable interval in recent years. Sample period(2017 M1-M6) to predict the future is still a high incidence, the comprehensive warning index can reflect the risk status in advance, and effectively play the role of cross-border capital monitoring and trend decomposition.