中哈经贸发展新趋势及金融支持对策研究——基于贸易互补性的实证分析

Research on the New Trend of China-kazakhstan Economic and Tread Development and the Countermeasures for Financial Support

哈萨克斯坦(简称哈国)是丝绸之路经济带的重要节点国家,中哈贸易对丝绸之路经济带整区域经贸合作具有示范效应。近年来中哈两国贸易呈现下降趋势。本文综合运用贸易结合度指数、贸易特化系数以及贸易互补性指标对中哈贸易产业结构特征和贸易发展趋势进行实证分析,得出:中哈两国贸易下降受到了世界原油价格下行、中国自哈进口额下降以及哈货币坚戈大幅贬值的短期冲击,两国要素禀赋的明显差异和产业结构的互补性并没有发生实质性改变,将继续为深化两国经贸合作提供内生动力。在世界经济稳步向好的前提下,中哈两国的贸易规模将会逐步回升,贸易结构将更趋合理。结合两国贸易发展存在的问题,本文提出应当进一步加强货币合作规避汇率风险、加大对重点项目的融资支持,搭建交流合作平台,发挥金融对于贸易畅通的促进作用。

Kazakhstan( Ka for short) is one of the most significant countries on the "Silk Road Economic Belt" for China,because of the strong demonstration effect of trade between these two countries for the regional economic and trade cooperation. However, the turnover between Kazakhstan and China has shown a downtrend in recent years. To find the reason,comparing the trade combination index, trade specialization coefficient and trade complementarity index, this paper empirically analyses industry structure and development trend of trade between Kazakhstan and China In conclusion, the main factors lead to trade decreasing are the falling price of world crude oil,the Chinese dropping import from Kazakhstan and a tentative influence of depreciated tenge. In fact, not only have distinct difference of factor endowments and complementarity of industrial structure in two countries not materially changed at all, but also they are endogenous engines to continue prompting bilateral economic and trade cooperation. Therefore, as long as the world economy situation is improving steadily,the trade scale will expand gradually and the trade structure will be more reasonable.