人口结构变迁、宏观经济与货币政策

Demographic Change,Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy

中国人口结构经历着重大的变迁,人口老龄化程度不断加深,对宏观经济和货币政策产生冲击,引起货币当局和学界的关注,但该领域的研究深度和广度还不足,亟待各方加强研究。本文把人口结构变量引入OLG-DNK分析框架,分别从需求侧和供给侧研人口结构变迁对究货币政策的影响。之后,利用中国1991-2016年宏观数据实证分析人口结构变化对宏观经济和货币政策的冲击影响。研究结果表明,人口老龄化将降低货币政策的有效性,给中国货币政策带来挑战,应调整货币政策目标,并加快货币政策框架从数量型向价格型转变。

China's population structure has undergone significant changes. The aging of population has deepened, and it has impacted on macroeconomic and monetary policies. In this paper, the population structure variables are introduced into the OLG-DNK analysis framework to study the influence of the demographic changes on the monetary policy from the demand side and the supply side. We use 1991-2016 years of macro data in China to analyze the impact of demographic changes on macroeconomic and monetary policy. The results show that aging of population will reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy and challenge China's monetary policy. We should adjust our monetary policy objectives and accelerate the transformation of monetary policy framework from quantity to price.