空间视角下普惠金融影响因素研究——以新疆各地州为例

A Study on the Influence Factors of Inclusive Finance in Space Perspective:Taking Xinjiang States as an Example

本文通过构建普惠金融发展指标体系,对新疆各地州2005-2016年普惠金融发展水平进行了测度,并利用全局莫兰指数和局部莫兰指数,对新疆各地州普惠金融发展空间关系存在与否和空间关系类型,进行了检验和分析。然后,构建空间面板随机效应模型,对普惠金融发展影响因素做了实证分析,结果发现农村人口比例、第二产业增加值和农林牧渔产值占地区生产总值比例,都对普惠金融发展有显著负向影响;社会消费品零售总额、人均受教育年限和人口密度具有显著地促进效应;政府支出对普惠金融发展并没有发挥良好地促进作用。更重要的是,社会消费总额和人均受教育年限对本地州和相邻地州普惠金融发展都有正向促进效应。为了验证结果的可靠性,通过构建不同的空间矩阵,对回归结果进行了稳健性检验。

Through the construction of the index system of inclusive financial development, this paper measures the development level of Inclusive Finance for 2005-2016 years in all parts of Xinjiang, and uses the global Moran index and the local Mulan index to test and analyze the existence of the spatial relationship of the general financial development and the spatial relation type of the prefectures in Xinjiang. Then, we construct the spatial panel random effect model, and make an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of the general financial development. The results show that the proportion of the rural population, the second industry added value and the proportion of agricultural and forestry production value to the GDP have a significant negative impact on the general financial development, the total retail sales of consumer goods and the per capita education. The childbearing years and population density have a significant effect on promoting the development of inclusive finance;government expenditure has not played a good role in promoting the development of inclusive finance. More importantly, the total social consumption and the length of education per capita have positive effects on the development of Inclusive Finance in local and neighboring states. In order to verify the reliability of the results, robustness tests of regression results are carried out by constructing different spatial matrices.