经济转型下的中国居民储蓄率研究

A Study on the Savings Rate of Chinese Residents under the Economic Transition

改革开放40年来,伴随着经济结构的不断转型升级,中国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,作为支撑投资、消费增长的重要资本来源,居民储蓄率水平直接影响着中国经济增长的可持续性。本文基于历年资金流量表和宏观统计数据对我国居民储蓄率的变化趋势、影响因素以及"新常态"下未来走势进行了理论和实证两方面的梳理。研究发现,居民储蓄率将在短期内呈下降趋势,但从长期来看,不同经济发展阶段受产业结构调整、城镇化水平提高以及不确定因素影响将导致居民储蓄率具有非线性的波动特征。

In the past 40 years of reform,with the continuous transformation and upgrading of economic structure,China’s economic development has made remarkable achievements.As an important source of capital to support investment and consumption growth,the level of household savings rate directly affects the sustainability of China’s economic growth.This paper combs the changing trend,influencing factors and the future trend under the'new normal'based on the capital flow table and macro-statistical data over the years.It is found that the household savings rate will decrease in the short run,but in the long run,the household savings rate will fluctuate non-linearly due to the adjustment of industrial structure,the improvement of urbanization level and uncertainties in different stages of economic development.