金融深化程度与农户消费水平——基于DSGE模型和CHFS农村住户调查数据的综合分析

Financial Deepening and Rural Household Consumption Level——The Comprehensive Analysis based on DSGE Model and CHFS Rural Household Data

如何拉动农户消费一直是学术研究的热点问题,而金融深化对农户消费的作用也受到学界的广泛关注。本文通过构建多部门动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,理论分析了农户家庭部门的金融深化程度与其消费水平之间的联系,随后利用2013年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)的微观数据对理论模型的结论进行验证,进一步实证分析金融深化程度对农户消费水平的影响。研究发现,金融深化程度的提高将有助于促进农户消费水平的提高,且这种促进作用在中低收入阶层中更为显著;从金融服务的种类来看,信用卡服务对居民消费的作用更大,其次为储蓄投资类服务,而生产性信贷对居民消费的作用则较为微弱。应进一步放宽农村金融市场准入,加强移动互联技术与金融服务的结合,从而加快农村金融深化,促进农户消费增长。

How to boost the rural consumption has always been a hot spot in academic research,and the role of financial deepening has received extensive attention in academic circles.In this paper,by building the multi-sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)models,we first analyzed the relationship between rural financial deepening and the household consumption level.Then we empirically tested the theoretical model using the micro data of the Chinese Family Financial Investigation(CHFS)in 2013.The study found that the improvement of financial deepening degree would help increasing the level of rural consumption,and the effect was more significant in low-income groups.From the perspective of different kinds of financial services,the galvanizing impact of credit card service is bigger than other services,the second is saving and investment,and the role of productive credit is relatively weak.To promote the rural household consumption growth,we should relax rural financial market access more,strengthen the combination of mobile and international technology and financial services,and speed up the steps of rural financial deepening.