全球经济格局下的中国经济金融战略研究

China's Economic and Financial Strategy under the Global Economic Landscape

近来,中国宏观经济发展与金融市场运行出现了一定的分化:一方面经济增长相对稳定,转型升级积极推进;另一方面,金融市场表现相对低迷,股市运行没有很好地反映经济发展态势。本文基于全球经济格局变化的视角,对此进行了研究:这种分化的深层次根源是中国在全球经济格局中的地位发生了显著变化,而以美国为首的主要经济体对中国崛起保持了"集体警觉",采取了较为明显的遏制战略;直接原因则是美元加息周期对我国产生了显著的外溢影响。为此,中国经济金融发展战略的重点,一方面是通过继续深化改革和转型升级,将国内潜在需求转化为有效需求;另一方面要理性地处理中美贸易摩擦,积极拓展美国以外的国际市场,并针对美元加息对我国产生的外溢性影响,做好风险监测和应对预案。

Recently, China’s macro-economic development and the operation of financial markets have appeared a certain differentiation. On the one hand, the economic growth has been relatively stable;transformation and upgrading have been actively promoted. On the other hand, the financial market has been relatively depressed, and the operation of the stock market does not closely reflect the economic development. Based on the perspective of global economic landscape change, this paper studies this issue, and finds that: the deep root of this differentiation is that China’s position in the global economic landscape has changed significantly, while the major economies led by the United States maintain a 'collective vigilance' to China’s rise and adopt a more obvious containment strategy;The direct cause of this divergence is that the cycle of U.S. dollar interest rate hike has a significant spillover effect on China. To this end, the focus of China’s economic and financial development strategy should be, on the one hand, through continuously deepening reform, transformation and upgrading, to make domestic potential demands into effective demands;on the other hand, we should rationally handle the Sino-U.S. trade frictions, actively expand the international market outside the United States, and make plans of risk monitor and response in view of the spillover effect of U.S dollar interest rate hike on China.