人民币名义有效汇率如何影响实际有效汇率

Do RMB NEER's Appreciations Lead to REER's Appreciations

随着2005年7月人民币汇改的推进,一个重要的政策问题在于,名义汇率的变动是否可以显著地影响实际汇率,影响程度如何?如果影响是显著的话,则名义汇率可以成为调节国际收支等变量的有效政策工具。本文采用前沿且稳健的ARDL边限检验法,实证研究新汇改以来人民币名义有效汇率(NEER)对实际有效汇率(REER)在长期和短期上的影响机制。结果表明:2005年3季度~2013年4季度期间,NEER与REER之间存在协整关系;NEER长期和短期上均显著地正向影响REER,名义汇率可以在一定程度上成为货币当局的有效政策工具。本文提出若干有针对性的启示和政策建议。

While RMB real effective exchange rate(REER) is playing an increasingly important role in financial world, the RMB nominal exchange rate can be used to influence its real exchange rate as a policy tool. This paper investigates whether RMB nominal effective exchange rate(NEER) appreciations lead to REER appreciations since the exchange rate reform of July 2005 by employing a relatively new method ARDL. The empirical result shows that in the sample period from 2005Q3 to 2013Q4,RMB NEER has significant influences on REER both in the short run and in the long run. And some policy implications are presented.