摘要
近年来的虚假贸易严重混淆了中国的真实出口规模和真实出口增速,干扰了对宏观经济形势的准确判断和相关决策。本文将虚假出口定义为没有贸易伙伴真实需求的出口,据此提出一系列基于不同动机的虚假出口监测指标和规模估计方法。2013年,中国与贸易伙伴之间的出口高报约2675亿美元,中国对自身出口约1048亿美元,有真实需求的出口增速仅为3.4%。2014年第3季度以来的出口高报提示我们需要重新审视贸易增长目标考核制度。
China's real exports and growth have been significantly distorted by arbitrage trade in recent years,which confuses the judgment of China' s macroeeonomic state and related policy making.This paper defines arbitrage trade as exports without trade partners' true demands,and proposes a series of monitoring indexes and estimations for arbitrage trade.The results show that in 2013,China's exports with its trade partners have been highly inflated with 267.5 billion US dollar,re-exports from China to China is about 104.8 billion US dollar,and the real exports growth is only 3.4%.The over-invoicing of exports since the third quarter in 2014 indicates that we should reevaluate trade growth target assessment system.
出处
《金融评论》
CSSCI
2014年第6期36-46,122,共12页
Chinese Review of Financial Studies
基金
中国社会科学院世界经济预测与政策模拟实验室的资助
