美国公共债务前景分析——基于误差修正模型和模拟的研究

Perspective on Public Debt of US:Estimation based on VECM Model and Simulations

本文使用向量误差修正模型(VECM),以及情景模拟方法对美国公共债务的前景进行分析,以此判断美国政府债务积累的可持续性和未来前景。本文基于误差修正模型得出结论显示,美国公共债务负担率、联邦财政赤字率,以及经济增速之间存在显著的协整关系,且反映出美国联邦政府长期的财政纪律,从而避免了债务负担率的无限上升。情景模拟的结论也显示,美国公共债务具有可持续性,最终债务负担率将稳定在67%~83%之间,联邦财政的赤字率最终均稳定在1.5%以下,均不会超过对美国经济造成实质性损害的临界水平。

Applying the methods of VECM and scenario simulations,this paper tries to analyze the future of federal government's public debt in US.Based on the empirical studies,we conclude that the co-integration of debt burden ratio,the deficit rate and economic growth rate reflects financial rigidities of the US federal government,which avoids the debt burden growing infinitely.The results of scenario simulations also support the above conclusion,and indicate that the debt burden rate will finally lie between 67%and 83%,and the deficit rate will be lower than 1.5%,both of which will be harmless to the US economy.