通货膨胀、现金流和股票价格

Inflation, Cash Flow and Stock Price

本文以沪深两市2001~2012年A股上市公司为样本,首次在现金流与股价研究中引入了通货膨胀这一因素,实证检验了通货膨胀、现金流和股票价格之间的关系。本文的研究结果表明:经营活动现金流和筹资活动现金流与股票价格都具有显著的相关性,且股价随经营活动现金流和筹资活动现金流的增加而上升,但投资活动现金流与股票价格之间的相关性并不显著;经营活动现金流、筹资活动现金流对股票价格有正向影响关系,这种关系随着通货膨胀的增加而增强。本文结论是投资者在证券投资方面应充分考虑现金流在通货膨胀的影响下对股票价格的影响。

We use corporate data in Chinese stock market from 2001 to 2012 to investigate the relationship between the stock price and the cash flow. Introducing inflation into the test, the results show that:(1) operating cash flow and cash flow from financing activities are both associated with the stock price significantly, and stock price can be higher with the increase of operating cash flow and cash flow from financing activities, but the correlation between cash flow from investment activities and stock price is not significant;(2) op-erating cash flow and cash flow from financing activities have positive effect on the stock price, and this relationship is enhanced with the increase in inflation.