货币政策前瞻性指引:实施原理、主要类型、国际经验及其对中国的启示

Forward Guidance in Monetary Policy: Principles, Types,International Experiences, and Implications for China

本轮全球金融危机爆发后,前瞻性指引作为零利率限制下的非常规货币政策,被各国央行广泛应用,是央行货币政策实践领域的重要新进展。本文介绍了前瞻性指引的基本原理、成功实施前瞻性指引的必要条件以及前瞻性指引的主要缺陷,总结了前瞻性指引的主要类别和国际经验,评估了前瞻性指引政策的效果,并对前瞻性指引政策的前景进行了展望。虽然目前中国并不存在利率零利率下限问题,但这并不意味着前瞻性指引不能为我所用。中国货币政策正处于从数量型调控向价格型调控转型的过渡阶段,央行可以通过前瞻性指引加强对市场预期的引导,从而有助于增强对中长期利率的控制、减少市场波动性与促进金融市场稳定。

The article makes a survey on the literature and practices of forward guidance in monetary policy. Based on an analysis of the principles and preconditions for forward guidance, the article argues that forward guidance can be a useful tool for China even though the problem of zero lower bound on interest rate is not met yet here. As China 's monetary policy is transiting from quantity-oriented type to price-oriented mode, the central bank could use forward guidance to manage market expectation and enhance financial stability.