以史为鉴:欧元区会崩溃吗?(上)

Why a Breakup of the Euro Area Must be Avoided:Lessons from Previous Breakups (Ⅰ)

欧元区崩溃可能会带来灾难性后果。造成多米诺骨牌效应的关键原因在于欧元区Target2系统内巨额的未清算余额。如果希腊退出欧元区确实发生,并导致欧元区解体,其造成的损害程度将依政策取向的不同表现出很大差异性。基于过去主要货币联盟解体的经验,友善、快速、协调有序地使欧洲经济货币联盟解体将有助于损害最小化。

The breakup of the Euro area may lead to a host of disasters. The critical argumentfor a domino effect is that the EMU already has large uncleared interbank balances in its so-calledTarget2 system. If Greece does depart from the Euro area and the Euro area breaks up, the damagewill vary greatly depending on the policies pursued. On the basis of prior dissolutions of currencyzones, the author suggests that an amicable, fast, and coordinated end of the EMU would minimizethe harm.