货币国际化:历史经验的解析

Currency Internationalization: A Historical Perspective

当前的国际货币体系不会发生大变革,国际货币体系只会在目前的美元主导货币体系下呈现出微调的演进特征。国际货币体系中的英、美模式不可复制。日元国际化进程史表明,不注重提高国内金融系统效率追求形式化的、受制于别国干预的货币国际化不会取得实质性成功。货币竞争的基础是商品和金融产品的竞争,区域或全球明确的国际分工位置和具有竞争力的金融体系是货币区域化或国际化成功的关键。

Changes in the present US dollar-dominated international monetary system will be incremental rather than revolutionary.Neither the British nor the US model can be replicated.Experience from the internationalization of the Japanese Yen shows that currency internationalization without focusing on improving the efficiency of the domestic financial system will become superficial,subject to the intervention of other countries,and make no substantial progress.Currency competition is based on competitions in commodity and financial products.A clearly defined regional/global role and position and a competitive financial system are the key to be successful in currency regionalization or internationalization.